There's no beating around the bush. Without Rose, this is a considerably weaker team. Yes, the rest of the starting lineup has returned. Yes, the Bulls won plenty of games last year with Rose on the bench nursing other injuries. But he wasn't named the 2011 MVP for nothing. The games he helped to win last season played a role in wrapping up the top playoff seed in the East. Had he missed more time, that win total would have been considerably lower. He's a great player. That usually means the difference between a top record and a slightly above average record.
Here's what the Bulls are facing for the first few months while Rose recovers. Think back to when Michael Jordan took his baseball sabbatical after the first 3-peat. Now swap out Scottie Pippen with Luol Deng, who's good in his own right, but doesn't belong anywhere near a Pippen conversation except that they share the small forward position. While the talent surrounding Deng now is comparable to what Jordan left Pippen with, you're still looking at a team not being discussed as a championship chaser.
Once Rose returns, you can take a look at what the Bulls were when Jordan came out of retirement. They struggled to stay above .500 and while Jordan gave the team a late push, he wasn't entirely in basketball shape, contributing to a conference semifinal elimination. An ACL injury is difficult to overcome, so we have to assume Rose won't be himself when he sees action again. It won't be this season. So you can see why nobody's taking this group seriously in winning a title this year.
Let's run down the roster beginning with the starting forwards. Luol Deng and Carlos Boozer worked well together during the preseason. Deng's wrist seems fine, meaning the British Olympian will make a run at another All-Star appearance. Boozer, while an above average player, is still not in favor with many fans since he hasn't quite played up to the contract the Bulls signed him to. This season could be his last chance at redemption before the amnesty talk spreads from the fan base to the front office. Gar Forman and John Paxson don't want to look bad for a deal they made two years ago, so they'll be waiting as long as possible for that type of consideration.
Joakim Noah remains the heart and soul of the Bulls as the starting center. Nothing proved that more than last year when despite a sprained ankle that knocked him out of the playoffs early, he tried to suit up for Game 6 before he realized the pain was too severe for him to do anything. Without him and Rose, the Bulls didn't stand a chance against Philadelphia with what they had left. They tried, but it wasn't enough. Noah is fully recovered and back on the floor. His rebounding will be as needed as it's ever been. He thrives on making life miserable for opposing players down low. He does it on both ends. He'll keep the Bulls in a lot of games by giving them as many chances as possible. Should he perform better than he has before, don't be surprised to see an All-Star trip in his near future.
The backcourt will be known for its veteran leadership. Rip Hamilton wants to stay healthy, something he couldn't do for much of last year. When he's on the court however, he still shows flashes of the player of old that served a key role for the Pistons teams that took the NBA by storm for many years. He might not be lights out every game, but if he gets hot, look out. You wouldn't be able to tell how old he is. Shooting is what he's paid to do and he'll follow through on that motive often.
Kirk Hinrich is back on the West Side with some in-game eyewear and a renewed commitment to leadership on this club. He's going to run the offense until The Return comes to. It'll be up to him to make good decisions with the ball. He's not Rose, so he should only drive when he sees an opening. Otherwise, he'll kick it out to open teammates on offense and play tight defense. How well he adapts to Tom Thibodeau's system will matter. Succeed and you'll see more victories than you might have thought possible. Have a tough time with it and you'll want to switch to something else on TV. Hinirch was the best the Bulls could have hoped for via free agency this summer, so if you don't like what he brings to the table, I don't know what to tell you.
Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler are the only returnees to the Bench Mob. Gibson will assume the leadership role as he possesses all the qualities required of your average NBA starting power forward. As long as he doesn't get worn out, he'll score like Deng and rebound like Noah. Butler will see his minutes increase as he's expected to fill the role of defensive specialist, which was previously occupied by Ronnie Brewer. Thibodeau puts his trust in players who have at least one year under their belts. We may not know everything about Butler yet, but we will very soon.
Of all the new bench players, Nate Robinson has turned the most heads. The three-time Slam Dunk Champion found ways to score in the preseason. He'll be counted on to pick up the load when Hinrich sits on the bench. Another source of bench offense is veteran center Nazr Mohammed. He's not expected to be a score-first player, but if he continues to make the most of his opportunities down low, he'll find great fondness in this fan base. Marco Belinelli will knock down 3s when called upon and Vladimir Radmanovic will do the little things down low that won't show up in the stats sheet. As for Marquis Teague, Butler's limited playing time last year tells me this year's rookie won't be seeing the floor any more frequently. We'll see what the rookie can do running the offense in limited time, but barring an injury to Hinrich or Robinson, we might have to wait another year to get a full grasp of his game. Yes, we just saw him help Kentucky win a national championship, but what exactly will carry over from his college days?
As I've mentioned in previous posts, this will be a telling season for Tom Thibodeau as a head coach. This will be his first team with expectations lower than championship contender. He'll continue to get the most out of his club night after night, especially on defense. He'll remain calm in wins and get upset over losses. That's the kind of person he is. Having just signed an extension, he can focus more on the present than what he'll be doing a few years down the line. His goal is to win and he just needs to take it one game at a time (cliche, I know), especially when his superstar won't be out there for awhile.
For the above reasons, a lot of folks are handing the Central Division to the Indiana Pacers by default. They have their main core healthy and returning. They play a scrappy brand of basketball and are reminiscent of what the Bulls were during Deng's early years and even Rose's first two seasons. However, I'm not so quick to crown Indiana. As far as I'm concerned, this is still the Bulls' division to lose. The core is still together and they're more experienced. Both teams are likely playoff-bound, but I'd like home-court advantage in at least one round. If the Pacers are going to finish ahead of the Bulls, they'll have to take it from them. For this reason, I'll predict a division-winning record of 49-33. There'll be a first-round victory, but that's all I'm counting on.
The fun begins Wednesday with a spooky Halloween opening at the United Center against the Sacramento Kings. The season is a long, 82-game grind and I'm looking forward to it. Hope you are too. Go Bulls!
No comments:
Post a Comment