Guest Post: Grading the Bulls' Offseason Through the Risk-Reward Prism

In case the following doesn't sound like my usual style, it's because I've deferred this post to my Tribune co-worker Luis Medina.  He had some thoughts on the Bulls' offseason, so I allowed him the opportunity to spill them.  Be sure to follow him on Twitter @lcm1986 as he's one of the most active users I personally know, especially about baseball.

First, my thoughts and prayers go out to Paul George as he recovers from last night's devastating leg injury.  Nobody should have to go through that.  I'll take any help for the Bulls in the Central, but I would prefer that it not happen in this fashion.  And now, here's Luis:

With the rights to anyone who could’ve been used in a Kevin Love trade secured for the three weeks or so, now might be the safest time to dig into the Bulls’ offseason happenings.

 

It would be easy to give the Bulls a non-passing grade for their offseason action. They didn’t get the create-your-own shot playmaker on the wing, nor did they get an in-their-prime frontcourt presence with the ability to score on the block and at the charity stripe at crunch time.

 

What the Bulls did do is attempt to mimic the formula put forth by the San Antonio Spurs during their recent run of success.

 

I write that sentence through gritted teeth.

 

I hate the Spurs comp some have dropped on the Bulls because it seems lazy.

 

I don’t think those who freely use that comp account for the Spurs having three Hall of Fame players in Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili.

 

I don’t think those who use that comp note the sacrifices Gregg Popovich has made as a coach whose calling card was primarily defense before evolving into a coach who does everything right from managing player minutes to offensive floor balance and game pace.

 

I don’t think those who use the Spurs comp understand that what is built in San Antonio wasn’t built in recent years, but done over time.  The Spurs went six years without a title, losing in the first round twice, conference finals twice, the conference semifinals once and the NBA Finals once. There was trial and error. There was mixing and matching. There were a lot of behind the scenes things that didn’t work in six seasons between titles.

 

And yet, those who throw out the Spurs comp don’t seem to note that it’s not an exact science.

 

So, based on their additions, what do we know about the Bulls moving forward?

 

Adding Pau Gasol should give the Bulls the kind of offensive variety it sorely lacked in the postseason, even if it isn’t in the form of a slash-and-score wing.

 

There are two grand hopes for this addition.

 

The first hope here is that having two big men with elite passing and distribution abilities can help make up for not having a second wing player who can create his own shot. The Joakim Noah point-center project worked until playoff time, when the Wizards did everything to shut it down, leaving the Bulls with insufficient secondary scoring options.

 

This is where Gasol is supposed to really pay dividends.

 

In moments when Noah as the point-center is being taken away, having Gasol on the offensive end should help keep defenses honest – especially if Gasol reverts to his pre-D’Antoni performance.

 

During his last All-Star season – 2010 – 72 percent of Gasol’s shot attempts came from 10-feet and in, but that dropped significantly in Mike D’Antoni’s offensive scheme. D’Antoni went away from Gasol’s strengths and the shot chart shows it. In his last two seasons, only 59 percent of Gasol’s attempts came from within 10 feet. Meanwhile, his attempts from 16-feet and out have nearly doubled from 15.6 percent in 2010-11 to 27 percent the last two seasons.

 

In one of the many “ifs” that could make or break the Bulls’ season, “if” Gasol can stay healthy and recapture the magic he had four years ago, the team’s offense will have improved significantly.

 

Nikola Mirotic is a wild-card for two reasons. Mirotic hasn’t played state-side, so getting acclimated to this style of play might be a challenge. The good news for Mirotic is that with the NBA adopting more of an open-floor style of game, which is reminiscent of European style ball, Mirotic could be a quick study.

 

Unfortunately, the other reason Mirotic is a wild-card is because Thibodeau hasn’t been wary of playing rookies heavy minutes. Sure, Tony Snell played more minutes than Jimmy Butler did as a rookie. But Snell saw a significant decrease in minutes after the deal that sent Luol Deng to Cleveland should have opened up some additional minutes.

 

Doug McDermott impressed everyone in the Las Vegas Summer League. His stroke looks pure and his basketball IQ is through the roof. It is up to the coaching staff to find playing time for McDermott, who admittedly isn’t a plus-defender, but is a decent enough rebounder to at least hold some kind of value on the defensive end of the floor.

 

McDermott could be a match-up problem moving forward, and that’s something that could benefit the Bulls’ second unit. It would be easy to use McDermott running off screens and curls. It would be easy to send him to a wing or corner and let him fire away after dribble-penetration causes defenses to collapse, leaving him with an open look at the bucket.

 

But McDermott, as a top scoring option for the Bulls’ second unit, has more potential than that if the coaching staff can scheme him to play against smaller guards or forwards where he can score in the post – as he did in college. The other primary option the Bulls could use McDermott in is at the high post in the same way Dallas uses Dirk Nowitzki.

 

Not to say McDermott can be Nowitzki. However, what I am saying is that McDermott showed in college the ability to knock that shot down and could probably do so against the NBA’s lesser defenders.

 

I’d be remiss if I didn’t note that this season hinges on Derrick Rose’s health.

 

Stop me if you’ve heard this before.

 

Rose’s role should be different in this offense from Day 1.

 

He should be asked to do less moving forward, especially as he recovers from his second knee surgery. Rose should focus on being a distributor and improving his jump shot, rather than being the guy who took over with one ISO possession after another.

 

Not to say I want to take away Rose’s aggressiveness, but the team’s No. 1 goal should be getting Rose through the year healthy. And if that means scaling back calling isolation plays for Rose, so be it.