I've said from the beginning I've had reservations about this move. Never mind that he's an offensive-minded coach who ran a pro style at the college level known as Hoiball. I could care less that Iowa State became a Big 12 powerhouse under him. Even his recent heart surgery doesn't factor into my view of it.
I don't like it because he hasn't had any experience coaching at the NBA level, even as an assistant. Granted, he's run a team longer than Vinny Del Negro ever had when he became the Bulls' coach. But he hasn't done anything to prove his strategies and personable skills can succeed with the best in basketball. It's a risk, but obviously one the Bulls are willing to take.
You're probably thinking "Steve Kerr and David Blatt have never coached in the NBA either and they're in the Finals." Yes, but Kerr saw a lot of action as a broadcaster and general manager. Blatt was an international lifer before getting the call from Cleveland. Hoiberg has only had a stint in the Timberwolves' front office, which ended five years ago.
If the Bulls were a younger team in transition with virtually no expectations for the coming year, I'd be more accepting of this move. But the fact is the Bulls still have the talent makeup of a contender in the East, even if they couldn't get out of the conference semifinals. Most players have been around long enough to know how professionals will react to certain things being taught. I have questions on whether many will listen to a college coach (not those who ripped Thibodeau) after taking orders from an NBA general in Thibodeau.
It might be wishful thinking to say these Bulls still have a chance to do well as constructed, but I remain somewhat optimistic. When you have a chance, thanks in no small part to the players you have, you need somebody who has a proven track record of coaching NBA talent. Hoiberg doesn't have that and Alvin Gentry does. Gentry will be the head coach of the Pelicans next year, so he's not available, but my point about guiding a veteran team stands.
It's possible, dare I say likely, that with a five-year deal, the Bulls are planning to use Hoiberg as the face of a new type of team. Anything to bring in a new style of offense would be a nice breather after watching a mostly stagnant one under Thibodeau. For all we know, that offense will take the NBA by storm within a few years.
A different offense will likely require different personnel which, while good long-term, doesn't do any wonders for the current group. It's not going to be easy for everybody to adjust to the new style right away, which could mean another lost season. If the title window hasn't shut, this is pretty wasteful on everyone who's here now.
Above all else, I really hope this isn't a case of Gar Forman simply wanting to hire a close friend who happens to be on good terms with others in the organization. If he's putting personal feelings over basketball objectivity, that's a terrible way to go about your business. Plus, he'd be doing it under a chairman who's known to reward others for their loyalty. Who besides Jerry Reinsdorf would have kept John Paxson around for so long or signed off on Robin Ventura as White Sox manager?
Plus, remember what happened the last time a Bulls GM was eager to lose a basketball genius for a coaching favorite? Whether Jerry Krause liked Tim Floyd for his coaching, his not being Phil Jackson or some combination thereof, it ushered in the darkest era in team history. Floyd and Del Negro were projects and Hoiberg could also be seen as one. Those tend to fail more often than not, which is why it's worth questioning if proven players can succeed with him.
Alas, there's nothing we can do now except wait for the introductory press conference. Hopefully, my skepticism will look silly sooner than later. I know I usually accept the Bulls' moves for what they are, but this is not one of those times. Prove me wrong, Fred.
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