Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Surging or Sorry Second Half Coming?

I'd call this a midseason report, but the Bulls have already played 63 percent of their regular season.  Amazing how the All-Star break comes when the season is far beyond halfway finished these days.  But that only means we know a little bit more about this team.  And what we know is not very pleasant.

A season that began with dreams of competing for the NBA title, or at least matching up with Cleveland well, has quickly regressed into one that's spinning out of control.  The Bulls lost 13 of their final 18 games in the first half, dropping them to 27-25, just one game in front of ninth-place Detroit in the East.  It's caused the fan base to become more disenchanted than ever with some even calling for Gar Forman and John Paxson to blow up the roster.  Nobody is prepared to tolerate another early playoff exit.

The long-term injuries to key players sure haven't helped.  Jimmy Butler was set to make his second straight All-Star appearance, but the self-proclaimed new team leader injured his knee in a game and will be sidelined at least well into March.  Nikola Mirotic, who was already having a tough second year, suffered a setback while recovering from an appendectomy and is out indefinitely.  And Joakim Noah, who wasn't doing much to help his or the team's cause to begin with, has been shelved for the rest of the season, possibly his last in Chicago, after having surgery on his separated shoulder.

These health issues have made it impossible to determine who many of the regular starters are.  Derrick Rose, who has increased his scoring every month since the start of the season, is a rightful mainstay among the first five.  Same for Pau Gasol, who replaced Butler on the All-Star team and is still good for a double-double each night, which is why the Bulls are reportedly shopping him ahead of Thursday's trade deadline.  Otherwise, it's difficult to find healthy players they can count on to get them going and play well to boot.

Although Taj Gibson has already made his most starts since his rookie year, the 30-year-old's scoring average (10.3 points per game last year to eight this year) and shooting attempts (8.2 to 6.7 in field goals and three to 1.9 in free throws) have taken a step back.  His rebounding average is up from 6.4 to 7.2, but overall he hasn't been enough to keep the Bulls afloat.  Tony Snell has started a lot this season too, though he's scored in double figures in just 10 of 50 games.  The more we watch him play, the less we're convinced he's a legitimate NBA player.

Mike Dunleavy returned from a back injury late in the first half and even started twice, so the jury's still out on him.  However, there's little reason to believe the Bulls' likely equivalent to a new player acquisition will make a huge difference in getting the season back on track.  Although Doug McDermott is getting an unofficial redo on his rookie season, he's mostly been what many have long suspected about him:  a pure shooter and not much else.  The good news for him is he's only 24, so for all we know, this is a player still adjusting to the NBA and figuring out what's required of him.

Aaron Brooks and E'Twaun Moore have done most of the backup point guard duties with the latter getting starts as necessary.  Brooks isn't as productive as last year, which is about what you'd expect from a veteran role player on the wrong side of 30.  Moore has been given more playing time than a year ago and does well with the opportunities he's given.  But like with other Bulls role players, you don't really want either to have to bail you out if you're trailing in a close game.

Bobby Portis, one of the few pieces people are willing to keep in the event of a fire sale, had to earn his way into the rotation.  Once he did, he showed how productive he can be, averaging seven points in 16.2 minutes over 32 games.  The ceiling is certainly higher for him than Cameron Bairstow.  The 2014 second-round pick has been forced into more action recently due to all the injuries to the bigs and nobody can be blamed for being scared if he's playing meaningful minutes.

Kirk Hinrich has been pushed toward the end of the bench, but his numbers are up overall from last year.  That probably has more to do with his limited playing time than anything else.  Cristiano Felicio is having his growing pains as an unheralded rookie who barely sees the floor.  We don't know the full extent of his game yet, so it's not fair to judge him based on 19 minutes over seven games.

Fred Hoiberg deserves some blame for mistakes typical of a first-year head coach (rotations, late-game management, etc.), but he can't receive most of it.  The situation he's in affords him some benefit of the doubt.  Until he gets a roster that fits Hoiball more, there's not a whole lot he can do.  It will take at least another year or two for him to realize what can happen with the right personnel.

This mess of a season has no choice but to keep going.  With most Eastern Conference playoff teams within striking distance, the Bulls would ideally chip away at their deficit until they got higher than their current seventh seed.  But nothing comes easy for this team, even with all the offensive freedom Hoiball affords.  The defense has failed constantly and until that's corrected, the doubt over whether this is even a playoff team will persist.

Ironically, the Bulls are 4-0 against the top two East teams in Cleveland and Toronto.  Even stranger is that they open the second half with a back-to-back with those clubs.  Of course, they've been healthier and deeper in those earlier meetings.  There's no question they should be the underdogs in both games.

Before you click away, check out the Bulls podcast I did for my online sports reporting class with my classmate Jim Alexander.  As you'll find out, we're both very pessimistic on the rest of this season and beyond.  I even throw in the thought of the Bulls potentially acquiring Dwight Howard to accelerate a potential rebuild.  Leave any of your own thoughts in the comments below.

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