Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Eager to Win East: 2014-15 Preview

For most of Tom Thibodeau's tenure as Bulls head coach, each season has begun with expectations higher than the previous year.  That's because he has a knack for getting the most out of his players nearly every game and people have figured that's bound to pay off sooner or later.  However, the Bulls have made only one trip to the conference finals under his watch, leaving many to wonder what could have been every year.  Now, winning the East is more possible than it ever has been.

The consensus is the Bulls have their deepest team under the current regime of Thibodeau, Gar Forman and John Paxson.  They addressed their low-post scorer need with Pau Gasol, drafted a promising rookie in Doug McDermott and finally brought Nikola Mirotic over from Europe.  Add everyone who was already in Chicago and you're looking at a group few opponents will want to face on a nightly basis.

The East has changed with LeBron James returning to Cleveland and Kevin Love joining him.  Many consider that club the favorite to reach the NBA Finals this year on that alone.  But remember that James needed some time to get used to Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh when he first arrived in Miami and he's already told people to cool it with championship predictions for his new Cavs.  That said, this will have to be the year for these Bulls to go the furthest they've ever gone, so let's look at the players who could help make that possible.

Every Bulls story begins and ends with Derrick Rose, the former MVP who is trying to return to his old self consistently with two reconstructed knees.  After a poor showing for Team USA in the World Championships and a shaky start to the preseason, he finally led the Bulls in scoring during their final couple of exhibitions.  This is the year the unselfish Rose will have to become selfish with the ball in order to return to the top of the precipice he once stood on.  Besides that, he's the only player on the team who can create his own shot, so expect the ball to be in his hands when the Bulls need offense the most.

As much as we don't like to talk about it, the greatest truth about the Bulls' season is that they're one major Rose injury away from having all this NBA Finals talk go down the tubes.  With their star point guard suddenly prone to his body breaking down, many Bulls previews have included the phrase "Derrick Rose, if healthy" for good reason.  Whether it's scoring himself, finding open teammates or playing Thibodeau's lockdown defense, he will be counted on heavily to do it all.  His value is so high it would almost make sense to stop this preview right here.

But I must go on, beginning with Jimmy Butler, Rose's fellow starting guard who can become a free agent after this year (I'll save that talk for later).  He plays heavy minutes regularly and has improved every year since coming into the league.  His offense would be valuable to any team and he's extremely focused on defense when he needs to be.  You can call him an example of a basketball player who wasn't born with the most natural talent, but gets the most out of what he has, leading to momentum for his team and thus, more victories.

The starting forwards, Gasol and Mike Dunleavy, bring a collective 25 years of NBA experience to the team, meaning they know what it takes to win in the league better than anyone else.  This is where the Bulls will have to show that being older in certain areas doesn't mean unable to keep up with the younger, fresher players on the floor.  Offense typically sticks around longer, so for a team that couldn't possibly have a worse time scoring than it did last year, this is a valuable facet of their starting lineup.

Gasol won a pair of NBA championships with the Lakers, so he brings that important knowledge with him as well as his low-post offense.  Maybe he's lost a step or two and isn't as explosive a scorer as Carmelo Anthony, but his 18.3 points per game for his career and seven-foot frame make him an immediate upgrade over Carlos Boozer.  If he can show he won't be a defensive liability during his age-34 season, the Bulls will be solid at the four throughout a typical 48-minute contest.

There was much debate whether the rookie McDermott should start at small forward, but for now, Dunleavy's endurance (he played all 82 games last year) and potent offense are enough to keep the spot he took after Luol Deng was traded last season.  His biggest weapon is his solid shooting, which will definitely be needed for the Bulls to rebound from a bad year on offense.  It's very likely he'll play the least out of the five starters, but that will merely take the pressure of doing more than needed off of him.  This way, he can concentrate on providing the Bulls with what he can until the deep bench is unleashed (more on that in a bit).

All energy on the Bulls runs through starting center Joakim Noah, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year who's just coming off knee surgery.  When he plays well, he gets pumped up and the rest of the team responds.  Doing it at the United Center is a bonus because it really gets the crowd going, which allows the team to feed off the extra energy in the building and will them to be ahead when the clock hits zero.  Without Noah, the Bulls would be a very different team, certainly not a championship contender.

Besides the defense he's become so known for, Noah reinvented his game last year to become one of the best passing centers in the league.  He basically forced himself to do it after Rose went down, which raises the question of whether he would have unleashed that part of his game if Rose had stayed healthy.  This combination makes him one of the most exciting two-way players in the league.  His mere presence is enough to affect the course of a game, which is a big reason why we as Bulls fans have fallen in love with him more as he's continued to raise himself.

Taj Gibson was told to train as a starter this offseason, but that chance will have to wait a little longer with the signing of Gasol.  Still, things are looking up for him one year after averaging a career-high 13 points and shooting 75.1 percent from the free throw line.  He plays very well on both offense and defense and, while his game isn't built on flash, he has enough talent to show he's worthy to be on the same court as basketball's best.  This makes him one of the favorites for Sixth Man of the Year.

Not since Rose's selection in 2008 have the Bulls ended draft night with a player as decorated as McDermott.  Last year's national player of the year out of Creighton was lauded for his scoring and high basketball IQ, all of the above being qualities Forman and Paxson admire.  A rookie with that resume should be ready to contribute right away, something Thibodeau will have to recognize as he hasn't been generous with rookies' minutes in the past.  In fact, if he plays well enough to begin the season, don't be surprised if he takes Dunleavy's spot as a starter.

After the Bulls held onto his rights for three years, they finally brought Mirotic over from Real Madrid of the Spanish league.  While he was a star in Europe, we don't yet know how that will translate with the North American game.  However, expectations are high that he will eventually be as critical to the Bulls' success as Toni Kukoc was during the 90s.  He might even surpass McDermott in value, but all that will be decided as the two players gain more NBA experience.

One acquisition that would have made greater headlines in the Bulls' previous three offseasons would have been that of Aaron Brooks.  Despite averaging just nine points between Houston and Denver last season, Thibodeau's offensive system gives Brooks a chance to thrive at the point the way D.J. Augustin and Nate Robinson did before him.  He'll be 30 in January, so he's about the right age where he's hoping for a breakout season, resulting in someone overpaying for him next year.  For now, he's trying to win a championship, and he's never had a better chance than he does now.

The rest of the roster focuses on guys the Bulls have confidence in to help out as the season progresses.  Kirk Hinrich and Nazr Mohammed are not the players they once were, but provide the veteran leadership that will hopefully allow them to contribute just enough.  Tony Snell played a lot his rookie year and has room for growth, which the Bulls believe as they just picked up his option for next year.  E'Twaun Moore has two years to prove he's worth that investment of the organization's money and Cameron Bairstow will have plenty to prove as the second-round pick out of New Mexico.

Thibodeau had a valuable summer as an assistant to Mike Krzyzewski for the gold-medal Team USA World Cup team.  Hopefully, a combination of observing Rose, watching Paul George's gruesome injury and other factors told him you don't have to step on the gas every single night at the expense of health to your players.  A minutes limit on guys who aren't completely healthy are worth consideration, particularly during the regular season.  Sure, it goes against what he's preached ever since coming to Chicago, but in today's NBA, you can't be too careful when the organization has invested so much money in its stars.

That doesn't mean we're going to see a completely different coach out of him though.  He'll still be the same tough-nosed individual roaming the sidelines in order to conduct his orchestra.  Perhaps though, he'll do so with a more guarded mentality.  The bottom line is he needs to find that middle ground between crazy for wins and fearful of injuries and fatigue.

In a conference as wide open as the East, that trip to the NBA Finals is there for the taking.  The Bulls and Cavaliers are the most primed to battle it out for that simply because how talent-driven the league is.  I predict the Bulls will finish behind Cleveland in the Central and also bow out to them in the conference finals.  Despite all the high expectations for this year's club, James is the one player you still have to go through and until the Bulls learn how to take his team down, I can't see them playing for the O'Brien Trophy.

This season filled with hope begins Wednesday when the Bulls take on the New York Knicks in a nationally televised game at Madison Square Garden.  Driving public interest in this contest will be Anthony facing the team he scorned to re-sign in the Big Apple for more money.  Of course, this is just the first of many interesting storylines that will surround the team this season.  It's time to play basketball and have fun doing it.


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