Small Forward, Big Decision?

For the most part, the Bulls' starting lineup has been set.  It would take a large-scale event to bump Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol or Jimmy Butler out of there.  Then there's the question that remains unanswered:  should Mike Dunleavy or Doug McDermott take the remaining spot at small forward?

As you may recall, Dunleavy moved into this spot in the rotation last season after the Bulls traded Luol Deng.  He was originally brought in to provide some offense off the bench, but after Rose tore his meniscus, the season's expectations changed and everything that led to this job was set in motion.  With over a decade of NBA experience and a potent offensive game, Dunleavy seemed like a natural fit to reclaim what had been his when the Bulls were eliminated from the playoffs and Tom Thibodeau agreed.  But with McDermott having started in his place twice already this preseason, it's possible the veteran will be starting games on the bench instead.

McDermott has played no fewer than 26 minutes in each of the team's first five preseason games.  His shooting has been up and down over these contests, but even when he's laboring for points, he's cleaning up on the glass, totaling at least eight rebounds three times.  For all the talk there's been about the offense and high basketball IQ McDermott will provide, we apparently haven't discussed his low-post play quite as much, but that 6-8, 225-pound frame makes you think he could double as a four without all the muscle.  While he hasn't been overly spectacular so far, he's showing off the hard work and results Thibodeau admires, making this issue that continues to hang over the exhibition schedule.

Thibodeau's final decision may come down to two things.  First, does he really want a championship contender to have two rookies (the other being Nikola Mirotic) coming off the bench regularly?  It's been quite some time since the Bulls were faced with such a dilemma.  The last major example I can think of was the 2004-05 Bulls when Deng came into the league along with Ben Gordon, Chris Duhon and Andres Nocioni.  Deng and Duhon started most of their games that year, but the current Bulls have much higher expectations, so this is a decision not to be taken lightly.

The second question is whether McDermott is more talented than Dunleavy, to which a yes answer should probably make him the starter by default.  It's a rule of thumb that you have to start those above anyone else, even if that means playing a rookie.  Which of these two players has the better chance to help the Bulls this year is not yet known, but even if it's Dunleavy, a scoring veteran off the bench might be the best solution.  The Spurs have put Danny Green in the starting lineup ahead of Manu Ginobili and it's paid off for them, so it gives the idea some legitimacy.

I still believe Dunleavy is the starter until McDermott can prove himself in the regular season, when the intensity will pick up and make conditions tougher.  I voted for Dunleavy in a SportsNation poll about this very question, but 74 percent of the over 3,600 voters as of Friday afternoon selected McDermott.  Maybe they're right about this touted rookie starting the first game of the season and continuing to build from there.  I just think a rookie who wasn't picked in the top 10 of the draft needs a few games to truly show everybody he has arrived.

Despite my belief, I think McDermott will have taken Dunleavy's place by the middle of November.  He's looked good so far and the Bulls sacrificed their two first-round picks in June to acquire the rights to him.  That's a lot of stock to put into any rookie, so it shows how confident the front office believes McDermott can help.  Plus, getting to play with four of the best players at their positions can only help his learning experience.

With the opening tip only 12 days away, there's still time for both players to show what they can bring to this year's team.  Regardless of who ends up where, the Bulls are going to get good offense from both.  It's just a matter of what balance will give them the best chance to win.  Thibodeau is smart, so I think we can trust him.